Curse

aZn invaZn · Aug 10, 2006, 09:56 AM // 09:56

hey guys,

well as you all know anet are having a double-your fun weekend this weekend so i was just wondering if it was worth dedicating the whole weekend to just doing chest runs

i have had really bad experiences with chest runs in the past and i really doubt that this 'double chance' of gettin a gold item is gonna help much.

I know it will certainly make it much more worthwhile to have double as many gold drops as usual but i was just wondering wether it will actually make me make a decent PROFIT.

so will it be better to concentrate on chest farming this weekend or make money by solo farming (like i do most of the time)?

krypt1200 · Aug 10, 2006, 04:29 PM // 16:29

Well, for starters, "double your fun weekend" double your gold drops, mean nothing. because we all know, damn straw effigys dont sell..maybe like .0001% of them do. So, you have to ask yourself, how many keys are you going to buy for cheap before the weekend, wether it be canthan keys, forbidden keys, urgoz keys, or deep keys. My suggestion to you is go for forbidden and canthan keys today, buy em for 200 gold off the normal merchant price, buy about 10 of each.(depending on how much money you have OR are willing to invest.) with that first bunch of keys, do Naphui quarter runs, or Raisu runs. If you have luck, keep on buying. After 20 keys, and your not getting ANYTHING, why keep dedicating money and time to something that you see isnt working. So basically, summing it up, buy a couple keys, test it out, if luck is on your side, keep doing it, if not, pull out for some odd hours, and try another key somewhere else. I suggest doing some runs AS SOON as the weekend "timer" starts. Maybe anet will give some good drops? I don't know, I have approximateley 3.5 million in the bank, so ill probably do it the whole weekend or something.

Butters1110 · Aug 10, 2006, 08:39 PM // 20:39

The last weekend thing i did the deep a few times. 95% of the chests were gold. I got some nice zodiac weapons. Also a large amount of golds were dropped off of enemies. There was about 15+ gold dropped off of enemies besides the chests. Not that sure about chest runs but you can test it. Doesnt really hurt

.Well good luck to you if you do gochest run

MelechRic · Aug 10, 2006, 10:18 PM // 22:18

I've been thinking about this a bit. I believe it boils down to two things in terms of profit.

1. What is the percentage of gold drops that are perfect? If it's some infintesimally small number then doubling the rate will have a negligible effect on your overall amount of good sellable golds. Averaged out over a long time you would see double the number of perfect golds and would make double the money. However, we're only able to do this for 2-3 days. Anecdotally I know that when I did chest runs for a weekend, I spent countless plats on keys and only gotten one decent item. (I basically broke even.) My one weekend isn't a great data point, but it was enough to make me give up on chest running. Howerver, it's possible that with double drop rates you can get two items and get a profit.

2. In terms of profits you need to consider the market. If there is huge pent up demand for perfect gold weapons (ie many more buyers than sellers) then doubling the tiny supply of these weapons will not cause profits from them to drop noticably. However, if supply is adequate and demand is being met or close to being met, then profits/prices of these weapons will fall. Demand may also drop because people who wouldn't normally do chest runs, but would buy weapons, are now tempted into chest running. If the drops are very good and we get rare weapons galore then people may be inclined to chest farm for their own weapons. This will be especially true if you can spend 50k on keys and easily get a 100-300k weapon.

Of course this is all just speculation and my two points seem to be in contention. I honestly believe that the drop rates may double but the chance of awesome perfect gold weaps is so tiny that doubling it hardly matters. I think this weekend is proof of ANet's mad genius ability to drain gold from the economy. ANet wants us to believe the last sentence in my second point.

Guitary Boy · Aug 10, 2006, 10:43 PM // 22:43

Well i have over 1000 highend keys in veriations for titles, so this weekend is just heaven for me

Chest running is the "Only" lucky thing i have. Urgoz and deep weekend i got 1 non max damage gold from a monster while every one else gets 4 perfects each. Chests for me though were perfect galore. I have used around 300 keys and i 130 somthing has been gold wich is quite good, i have had 4 100k + x ecto's items, in the long run i have found chestruns the most profitable thing i have come across. So my advice is buy loads of keys!

But taking into account of what the guy above me said, i am worried that the perfects market will drop due to overflowing of them, and everyone else just doing the runs themselves...i guess we will just have to wait and see.

MelechRic · Aug 10, 2006, 11:08 PM // 23:08

300 keys @ 600 gold = 180 plat

130 gold / 300 opened chests = 43% chance for gold.

4/300 = 1.3% chance for perfect gold

Doubling that would mean that you'd have 86% chance for gold and 2.6% chance for perfect gold

If you can sell each gold for 100k+ then your 180k should net you 800k in sales (IFF the market holds).

Seems like chest running might be a wise move if Guitary Boy's numbers are real.

EDIT: Guitary Boy, if I misread your post then please correct my numbers.

volsungxiii · Aug 10, 2006, 11:31 PM // 23:31

Like someone previously mentioned, doubling a small percent is still a small percent. I am however, going to try a few nahpui quarter runs. Hopefully I can increase my celestial collection ^_^. My advice is not to go overboard. I personally wouldn't spend 100k on keys. Not worth it, plus I'm not in it for the gold. I just want to increase my collection of rare weapons. I make gold through other methods.

Ventius Hozza · Aug 11, 2006, 12:23 AM // 00:23

I'll buy your straw effigies. FULLY COLOURABLE!

'slong as they are good

And also, nah I doubt that it will be worth it. I mean, by all means do it... but I won't be participating in any chest running this weekend.

R_Frost · Aug 11, 2006, 04:00 AM // 04:00

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twicky_kid · Aug 11, 2006, 04:03 AM // 04:03

Since this is going to lower the price of all weapons I don't think you are going to make much in the end.

Not to mention the ammount of time it takes to sell this stuff with an already saturated market.

VitisVinifera · Aug 11, 2006, 05:24 AM // 05:24

I look at this the same way as Guitary boy: if you have a bunch of keys saved up already, this is the best time to burn them. I wouldn't go blowing your gold stash on keys and running chests all weekend (both because it's probably still not worth it, plus chest farming is a kinda lame way to spend your playing time)
That said I'd just put all my luxon and kurz keys in a stack whenever they dropped to save for maybe a title run. Well, now it's time to burn them.

rhYmedizzle · Aug 11, 2006, 05:32 AM // 05:32

LOL whats up with R Frosts post lololol thats the most random thing ive seen lately. hmmm where to run, luxon chests, kurzick chests, raisu, nahpui, DONDE?

aZn invaZn · Aug 11, 2006, 05:59 AM // 05:59

well i guess the general opinion is to NOT to do chest runs this weekend...kinda wat i was leaning towards since i dont have any keys atm and hardly enough money to buy heaps

i spose ill just stick to my usual farming spots this weekend

thanx guys